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Table 2 Cross-correlations with real GDP

From: Capturing Swiss economic confidence

 

Lag

Contemporary

Lead

 

Mean

Range

Mean

Range

Mean

Range

Sector/Actor

Construction

0.17

(0.00, 0.41)

0.08

(0.00, 0.24)

0.13

(0.00, 0.39)

Consumers

0.24

(0.02, 0.56)

0.16

(0.00, 0.44)

0.15

(0.02, 0.25)

Investors

0.25

(0.01, 0.49)

0.29

(0.02, 0.57)

0.19

(0.02, 0.45)

Manufacturing

0.36

(0.00, 0.65)

0.27

(0.00, 0.62)

0.13

(0.00, 0.39)

Services

0.23

(0.00, 0.60)

0.18

(0.00, 0.43)

0.13

(0.00, 0.29)

Trade

0.27

(0.03, 0.59)

0.17

(0.01, 0.44)

0.12

(0.00, 0.32)

Whole Economy

0.26

(0.03, 0.45)

0.15

(0.08, 0.27)

0.12

(0.01, 0.06)

Assessment

Current situation

0.23

(0.00, 0.59)

0.17

(0.00, 0.62)

0.13

(0.00, 0.39)

Expectations

0.31

(0.01, 0.65)

0.23

(0.01, 0.60)

0.14

(0.00, 0.45)

  1. Correlations in absolute terms. Mean corresponds to average cross-correlation of survey indicators for a particular group. Reference is the vintage 2023-Q2 of real, seasonally and Sport-events adjusted GDP, starting in 1995. Lag/lead indicates that the indicator is lagging/leading GDP by one quarter. Monthly indicators are aggregated to quarterly frequency by taking the mean of the corresponding months