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Table 3 Regressing GDP on SEC index

From: Capturing Swiss economic confidence

 

I

II

III

IV

1%

10%

\(SEC^{quarterly}_q\)

\(0.85^{***}\)

   

\(0.84^{***}\)

\(0.77^{***}\)

(0.10)

   

(0.10)

(0.10)

\(SEC_q^{m_1}\)

 

\(0.79^{***}\)

\(-0.42\)

\(-0.77^{*}\)

  
 

(0.12)

(0.33)

(0.31)

  

\(SEC_q^{m_2}\)

  

\(1.16^{***}\)

0.14

  
  

(0.30)

(0.34)

  

\(SEC_q^{m_3}\)

   

\(1.29^{***}\)

  
   

(0.26)

  

F-test: \(\beta _i^m = 0\)

 

18.32 (0.00)

13.52 (0.00)

12.45 (0.00)

  

F-test: \(\beta _1^m = ... = \beta _i^m\)

  

4.85 (0.03)

7.08 (0.01)

  

SER

0.46

0.36

0.44

0.55

0.44

0.44

Adj. R\(^2\)

0.43

0.33

0.41

0.52

0.42

0.52

Num. obs.

108

108

108

108

108

108

  1. Note: All regressions include four lags of quarter-over-quarter GDP. Results are significant at the \({***}p<0.001\); \({**}p<0.01\); \({*}p<0.05\) levels. Estimation sample is 1995:Q1–2023:Q2 using the latest vintage of SEC and GDP data. Data for 2020:Q2 and 2020:Q3 are neglected. Standard errors are given in parentheses for coefficients, and p values are given in parentheses for F-statistics